Archive for the ‘Predictions’ Category

Hubdub Predictions – UK Politics

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009

I just made a whole bunch of Hubdub predictions on UK politics. Some I think are genuinely likely, some I think are ‘Hmm, maybe…’, and, finally, there are a few that are probably just plain ol’ cases of wishful thinking.

Also, keep in mind that I have not actually lived in the UK for almost twenty years, so a lot of these predictions are necessarily based on general tittle-tattle, gossip, and things picked up from TV news, UK online newspapers, and so on. Not the best sources of reliable information, then.

Anyway, here they are. I’ll see how I get on.


rogi predicted Liberal Democrats (H$50 at 40%) on Who will come 2nd in the General Election?View full

rogi predicted Other (H$50 at 4%) on Who will come 2nd in the General Election?View full

rogi predicted United Kingdom Independence Party (H$50 at 3%) on Which party will poll the most votes in the European Elections held in June 2009?View full


rogi predicted Someone Else (H$100 at 10%) on Who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?View full

rogi predicted 6 (H$100 at 21%) on Cabinet Reshuffle: How Many Get Shuffled?View full

rogi predicted John Denham (H$100 at 11%) on Who will replace Jacqui Smith as the next UK Home Secretary?View full

rogi predicted Ed Balls (H$100 at 12%) on Who will replace Jacqui Smith as the next UK Home Secretary?View full

rogi predicted 2009 (H$1,000 at 23%) on In which year will the next UK General Election be held ?View full

rogi predicted No (H$1,000 at 19%) on Will David Cameron be the UK’s next Prime Minister?View full

Hubdub Predictions – F1 Monaco 2009

Sunday, May 24th, 2009

My Hubdub predictions for today’s Formula One race in Monaco.

Here they are:

rogi predicted Yes (H$50 at 45%) on Formula 1: will Ferrari finally finish at the podium in Monaco?View full

rogi predicted All – 3 (H$20 at 8%) on F1: Monaco: How many starters will finish ?View full

rogi predicted All – 6 (H$20 at 9%) on F1: Monaco: How many starters will finish ?View full

rogi predicted All – 5 (H$20 at 11%) on F1: Monaco: How many starters will finish ?View full

rogi predicted All – 4 (H$20 at 10%) on F1: Monaco: How many starters will finish ?View full


rogi predicted Other (H$50 at 3%) on Formula 1: who will win Monaco Grand Prix on 24 May?View full

rogi predicted Sebastian Vettel (H$50 at 6%) on Formula 1: who will win Monaco Grand Prix on 24 May?View full

rogi predicted Kimi Räikkönen (H$50 at 12%) on Formula 1: who will win Monaco Grand Prix on 24 May?View full

Hubdub Prediction: Somali Pirates

Saturday, April 11th, 2009

Interesting market with some good prediction choices just spotted on Hubdub:

(This graph will update live with each page load until settlement).

Somali Pirates Capture US tugboat in Aden Gulf, what’ll happen now?


Somali Pirates Capture US tugboat in Aden Gulf, what’ll happen now?

I have two predictions open on this, firstly ’The stick: Obama uses the US Navy: mixed results‘, and, secondly, ‘Non-US ship plays a major role to settle matters‘.

As usual, only time will tell.

Hubdub Account Update – 3rd April 2009

Friday, April 3rd, 2009

hubdub logo

Here is this month’s update on my Hubdub account. As I type, things stand as follows;

Net worth: hd$31,391

Cash: hd$12,990

Open predictions: hd$18,391

Quarterly gain; hd$-754 (new quarter just began – badly!).

Total predictions made: 2520 (low increase as a busy month last month)

Open predictions: 99, of which 70 I have made public.

I am at present ranking at #7065 on the global Hubdub leaderboard. (Also due  to new quarter).

Compared to my balances from last month, things aren’t really too different.

Onwards.

Hubdub Prediction – The Pope & The Cross

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

A quick prediction on a market that caught my eye over on Hubdub:

(This graph will update live with each page load until settlement).

Will the Pope publicly display his cross when he visits the Western Wall in Israel?

I have predicted h$500 at 47% that the Pope will not wear his cross when he visits the Western Wall in Israel.